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Fear and Loathing in Yosemite Valley

October 3rd, 2009 Vagabond 1 comment

rock-cairnWe swim in a river of time, carving our stories into the landscape in much the same manner as the rivers and glaciers that created the Yosemite Valley’s ever-changing landscape during their long and sinuous journey to the sea. But unlike those rivers and glaciers, now and then we pause to build cairns to mark our passage, not as a means of return, which we cannot do, but as a reminder to ourselves and to others, that someone has passed this way before, stopped to take note, and moved on.

Last week I paused to mark the passing of yet another birthday.

Read more…

Dancing in Afghanistan (updated)

September 24th, 2009 Vagabond No comments

Seriously now, consider this fascinating paradox of shared system aims and adversarialism.

System Concept 1: A nation’s military is an enterprise system aimed to fight and win wars.

System Concept 2: The system we define as “war” is one in which two or more military systems engage in the enterprise of protracted combat with the aim to overcome the opposing system’s aim to fight and win.

System 1 can be viewed as a subsystem of system 2.

These two systems are clearly related to one another. In system 1, leadership works hard to assure that all of the subsystems, parts, and individuals share aims, but are the aims shared in system 2?

different-dancesIn traditional warfare, the meeting of armies on the field of combat was based in shared system aims. The old saw “It takes two to Tango” comes to mind. Anthropologists say that the ancient art of war was actually based in a shared set of aims in which certain symbolic acts served to define the outcome to the satisfaction of the warring parties. Shared symbolic aims such as the American Indian’s “counting coup” were an economical means of settling disputes.

Modern “Clausewitzian” warfare — all out war — was still founded in shared aims. Chief among these shared aims was the idea of the nation-state and the leadership structure (sub-systems) that defined the state. In this system of war, the shared aim was to disable state leadership and break the economic and political systems of the opponent. So long as these aims were shared, the system of war worked.

Consider today’s war in Afghanistan. Obama’s problem is that the warring parties do not share aims. Afghanistan is not a nation-state. It is a vast region inhabited by tribes that do not even acknowledge the borders drawn on maps of the region. The aims of Afghan paramilitary systems do not match those of our traditional Clausewitzian military. We seek decisive, winnable, battle in order to behead leadership using a list of most wanted terrorists and Taliban leaders.

The Afghan tribal fighters aim for tribal honor in multi-generational vendetta. They don’t have a doctrine of decisive battle and “winning”. They attack targets of opportunity, count coup, and fade away into the deserts and mountains to await new opportunities. Like the Energizer Bunny, they just keep going, and going, and going. When a leader is beheaded, a new one emerges in short order.

In other words, we do the Tango while they do the Samba and so long as we fail to share aims, there is no “system of war” as defined in system 2 above. There is no war to be won. There is only perpetual conflict.

This problem is not fully understood by the US military, though I suspect Obama gets it and this is keeping him awake a night. Various system redefinitions have been tried by the US military. Asymmetrical Warfare and Counter-insurgency are a few of the ideas being used by those attempting to change the aims of the US military mission in Afghanistan. Sadly, these revisionist concepts still miss the point, largely because the American military doesn’t understand the nature of systems and aiming, as explained by Deming.

UPDATE: The latest strategy announced, is to stop hunting and killing combatants and start protecting the civilian population. Nonsense. Even if it were possible identify the civilians members of the various tribes, the dividing line between combatants and civilians cannot be determined. The US military needs to get down off its high horse and start taking Samba lessons.

Now consider Deming’s view of competitors (adversaries), in which a worthy competitor is good thing.

Is anyone listening?

Tom Cruise in Afghanistan

September 21st, 2009 Vagabond 3 comments

When it comes to Waterloos, Obama’s cup runneth over. According to the media, his star is falling at a precipitous rate. Among the big three star killers, Afghanistan is looming large, along with healthcare and the budget deficit. I’ve made my position clear regarding healthcare. Obama is right. As for the budget, I say spend more, but stop giving it to the Fat Cats. Which brings me to the subject of Afghanistan and the Tom Cruise solution.

tom-cruiseI know a bit about Afghanistan because I lived and traveled in that godforsaken place many years ago. If you want to know why I was there, you’d have to see a picture of the backpacking, India-bound, red-headed girl, I took a fancy to while in Istanbul. But I don’t have a picture of her and anyway, that’s another story.

Obama’s problem in Afghanistan is really quite simple. Read more…

I Long for an Honest Con

August 3rd, 2009 Vagabond No comments

James Kwack wrote about telecom “innovation” on Simon Johnson’s “Baseline Scenario” blog…

“NewYork Times technology columnist David Pogue is mounting a campaign against those canned messages that cellular carriers play after the greeting on your mobile phone voicemail… – you know, the ones that say “to leave a voice message, wait for the beep,” only they take 30 seconds doing so, for th sole purpose of chewing up the mobile phone minutes of the person calling you.”

James Kwack’s post made me think about how the best cons are the ones in which the Marks don’t even know they have been had. How I long for the days when you knew you had been suckered.

Take for example, my experience many years ago when I was just an 18 year old lad.

Shell Game (borrowed from http://ttoes.wordpress.com/2009/07/08/stimulus-shell-game/)

Shell Game (borrowed from http://ttoes.wordpress.com/2009/07/08/stimulus-shell-game/)

As I was leaving the bank in Long Beach with a dear $50.00 cash, there were a number of people gathered on the sidewalk and a tremendous excitement was about. I stepped over to see what was causing the commotion and saw a man running a shell game complete with walnut shells and a dried pea. I knew what I was looking at and immediately assured myself that I would stay clear. Out of curiosity though, I stayed, but only to observe.

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Me and Obama in Afghanistan

March 31st, 2009 Vagabond No comments
herot-store

Sketch from my journal - Herat

In 1972 I traveled overland from Europe to Afghanistan. I was on my way to India to get enlightened. I took the Orient Express to Istanbul, crossed the Bosporus straits by boat, and boarded another very slow train across Turkey and Iran. The tracks ended in Mashhad, Iran and from that point forward, I was relegated to jitney min-vans and vintage school buses painted blue and festooned with roof-racks and hand-holds for those passengers forced to ride on the outside.

While in Afghanistan, I was waylaid for six months, first by illness, then by curiosity.

Afghan Bus
Afghan Bus

During my convalescence in Herat, I was taken in by an Afghan family. They befriended me, nursed me back to health, and guided me. Their religion required that they do this, but I sensed no coercion in their acts of kindness, only joy. We played music and sang. I drew pictures of my home in California. They laughed with incredulity at my sketches of cities, freeways, and amusement parks. This was before satellite TV and the Internet had bridged the divide with the West.

Once I was able, I continued my travels, first across a vast and harsh desert to Kandahar, then upward toward Kabul, and finally into the mountains of the north. My twenty year old mind was unable to grasp the immensity of the land, but an impression of the people seeped into me. They were unlike any I had known.

afghan-street
Kabul Street

In Kabul, and to a lesser extent in Kandahar and Herat, it appeared that the people lived in accordance with the familiar rhythms of commerce—open markets, roll-doored shops, hagglers and money changers. But, as one Afghan told me, the capital city of Kabul is the capital of Kabul. Nothing more. A true city-state. The commerciality of  Afghan cities was a thin veneer that merely overlaid the profoundly nomadic culture that was very evident outside the narrow boundaries of Afghan cities.

caravan
Distant caravan

Outside those tiny and tenuous islets of commercial chaos I saw a timeless culture-scape of nomadism.  The vastness of the land was crisscrossed with worn tracks of caravans moving, always moving, for thousands of years across thousands of miles. Occasionally distant black tents, rippling in the heat, marked temporary encampments, but when morning came, I always saw the long lines of tribal people, camels, horses, and flocks of angora sheep, marching slowly and steadily—a timeless trekking—always moving. Along their nomadic paths, I saw many ancient cities and forts made of mud—their ghostly shapes melting back into the desert sands—empires once dreamt, now going, going, gone.

afghan-for
Melting Fort

I saw that these people possessed only those things that could travel with them—a few implements of domestic life and weapons, weapons, weapons. Knives and guns were much coveted and admired. My leather encased Buck knife was always a conversation starter.

A curious man offered his muzzle-loaded gun to me and indicated an interest in my Buck knife. We exchanged weapons. The man and his companions gathered to inspect and admire the Buck’s stainless steel blade and folding mechanism. I feigned interest in the man’s ancient gun. Once the ritual was over, everyone relaxed. We enjoyed our bowls of rice and dates, shared smiles, drew pictures on the dirt floor, and exchanged a few simple words.

afghan-woman
My sketch book – Afghan woman

It’s hard to explain in words, but I developed a deep appreciation for these people. As a vagabond—a fellow nomad—my encounters with them were framed in their well practiced rituals of respect, deference, and mutual admiration. There was something noble about it. I sensed that I was granted status as a matter of course. To lose it would require some disgraceful act on my part. As long as I showed respect and behaved with honor, they would consider me a friend to be supported, protected, and defended. But if I were to become an enemy by behaving dishonorably and disrespectfully, they would slit my throat without a second thought.

President Obama is in a precarious position. Without a political center, tribal Afghanistan is a land in which the practical matters governing day to day life reign supreme. To the Afghan people, the hardships of nomadic life are trivial when compared with the hardships wrought by greed, duplicity, and betrayal between men. In Afghanistan, it’s always personal.

Obama has not yet squandered the respect granted as a matter of course by the tribal people of Afghanistan. Should he do so, he will not be able to regain his status as an honorable man. Obama should adopt a policy of respectful engagement and relations of honor as a best strategy. I suggest that he will do best if he elects to proceed slowly, slowly, like a fellow nomadic traveler. With patience, he and his emissaries can leverage the rituals of friendship, loyalty, and honor that are a way of life in that vast tribal culture-scape.

Buck knife
Buck knife