A Fine Mess We’ve Gotten Ourselves Into

It’s the “holiday season”; a time when we hunker down around the fire and do a lot of story telling with each other. All over the world people are recounting the Christmas story of the birth of the baby Jesus and the Chanukah story of the miraculous oil that burned eight days and nights.

We recognize that the stories we tell are never absolutely true or false, but we also know that they are important because they help us to frame the way we think about the world as we move forward into a challenging future.

Here’s a good story that might be helpful.

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It’s a fine mess we’ve gotten ourselves into and if we’re going to get out of it, we’re going to have to find a way to start thinking out of our box. Continue reading

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Who’s a Hack?

Dr. W. E. Deming, the physicist, statistician, business consulatant I most respect and admire, used to caution his audiences, beware of hacks. So who’s a hack and how can we know if you or I or us or they are hacks? Continue reading

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A Sailor’s Imagination

I am imagining a great sailing ship named the SS Profit. She is the instrument of ambitious commerce, transporting great volumes of cargo bought in some port at the lowest price possible and sold in another as high as possible. And in each port, once unladen of goods sold high, she is filled with goods bought low and sailed in search of still more ports at which to buy low and sell high.

By churning goods bought low and sold high, the SS Profit makes her way on a never-ending journey, a perpetual profit machine, her sloshing wake creating tidal flows of goods to be traded: the ebb upon taking from some port, that which can be purchased low, and the flood upon selling in another port, all that can be sold high. Continue reading

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Acts of God man

Acts of Man

In today’s NYT Science section: “Add Quakes to Rumblings Over Gas Rush

Nine quakes in eight months in a seismically inactive area is unusual. But Ohio seismologists found another surprise when they plotted the quakes’ epicenters: most coincided with the location of a 9,000-foot well in an industrial lot along the Mahoning River, just down the hill from Mr. Moritz’s neighborhood and two miles from downtown Youngstown.

You know the fine print in your insurance policies that exclude “acts of God”? Well, it is looking more and more as though that language is no longer applicable. It is becoming increasingly clear that in our obsessive quest for more of everything—for profit and more profit—today’s and tomorrow’s disasters will be attributable to acts of man. Continue reading

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It don’t mean thing if it ain’t got that swing

FWIW — The following riff was prompted by Barbara King’s post on NPR’s 13.7 blog, “Homo Narrans: Humans As Story-Tellers (And Listeners)“, in which the nature of memory came up.

In a comment, Barbara wrote, “…But does every story originate solely from memory? Only in one sense. What about pure imagination, pure invention, that may be rooted in memory but that surely takes flight beyond it?”

I replied, “Stories are not populated with memories, assembled into a narrative. There is no memory databank in our heads. Memory is the narrative act itself. What we imagine as memory is written in the context of our ongoing shared narrative relations with others, real and imagined. Narrative flows. Memory flows.

Some interesting commentary ensued on the subject of the narrative act and the role of rhythm, resulting in my writing the following short essay that I think succinctly captures my take on the nature of human consciousness and a philosophy that flows from that understanding. Continue reading

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Reality Doesn’t Make Deals

“We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” — Albert Einstein

In an article in today’s NYT Dot Earth section, “Naomi Klein’s Inconvenient Climate Conclusions” Andrew Kevkin shares his e-converstation with Klein. The upshot of Klein’s position is so obvious it hurts. We are in a terrible mess—economic chaos, social dislocations, endemic military conflict, resource depletion, overpopulation, climate change—and we can’t get out of our mess by continuing to do what we have been doing, only better. We can’t consume our way out of the disastrous problems created by consumerism and the profit motive that underlies it.

“It’s that the solutions that groups like EDF (Environmental Defense Fund) have pushed are very often consumption based: buy these light bulbs, drive a hybrid, etc… And often these changes make sense. But the not-so subtle impact of putting so much emphasis on individual shopping habits has been to reinforce both consumerism and individualism.”

Less can be more, in a quality of life kind of way, but more is never less in a material kind of way. The myth that we can, though innovative technologies, produce and consume our way out of the problems created by excess production and consumption can be explained simply enough in terms of Jevons Paradox, summarized in the following Wikipedia entry. Continue reading

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The Wrong Story

Apropos of my post yesterday on the perils of nuclear power—a form of extreme energy production—Naomi Klein gives a wonderfully lucid explanation of how our dominant cultural story of an infinitely abundant world that will tolerate our most extreme efforts at sating our insatiable appetites, entails taking risks that can only result in ultimate disaster.

We have hit a wall and its non-negotiable. The old economic game is over. Either we come up with a new story—a new economics—or we go down as babbling inmates who have become trapped in our self-made insane asylum.

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NOTE: Klein really has it right. The bottom line really is about our own story telling–something we can actually control. Elsewhere in the archives of this blog you can find many discussions of the role of story in shaping our way forward, for better and worse. Try searching on “story” if you are interested.

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Things Go Wrong

NYT, Dec. 7, 2011 –  Japan Split on Hope for Vast Radiation Cleanup

No man's land?

In the United States, the average person gets six millisieverts of radiation a year. Around the Fukushima plant, officials evacuated areas where people would have gotten an estimated 20 millisieverts in the year after the accident. One area about twice the size of Manhattan was predicted to have a level of 100 millisieverts in the first year. The most contaminated parts of this area will be uninhabitable for at least three decades, experts say, though steps like removing soil could shorten that time.

Given any choice at all, would you raise your children in an area contaminated with nuclear materials that exposed them to 100 millisieverts per year? How about 20 millisieverts per year? How much contamination from a nuclear plant meltdown would be too much for you and your children? Continue reading

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Recipe: How to Succeed at Capitalism

NYT: JOHANNESBURG — An advocacy organization that helped to establish an international certification program to prevent the sale of so-called blood diamonds withdrew from the coalition on Monday, saying the effort was no longer effective.

Global Witness, is the first advocacy group to leave the program, known as the Kimberley Process, which was set up in 2003 because conflicts in Angola and Sierra Leone were being fueled by diamond sales.

Although the diamond business may seem like an economic sideshow, it is actually a perfect recipe for cooking up a free market meal ticket. Continue reading

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Our Powerful Striding Minds

I hold to the idea that as mindful creatures we are naturally given to a joyous disposition. Our minds have come into being as our means for soaring high above a world that bubbles forth, enabling us to navigate our way forward in purpose. I think that the reason for our malaise in modernity is well expressed in Rainer Maria Rilke’s poem, “Panther”.

His vision, from the constantly passing bars,
has grown so weary that it cannot hold
anything else. It seems to him there are
a thousand bars; and behind the bars, no world.

As he paces in cramped circles, over and over,
the movement of his powerful soft strides
is like a ritual dance around a center
in which a mighty will stands paralyzed.

Only at times, the curtain of the pupils
lifts, quietly–. An image enters in,
rushes down through the tensed, arrested muscles,
plunges into the heart and is gone.

The alienation we feel is self-imposed. It happens when we are denied our birthright to enact our mighty will in skillful action. The bars of our relations in modernity, in which we are left with nothing of great consequence to do, condemn our powerful striding minds to cages of meaningless work and empty pastimes.

In my experience sailing across oceans, my will and skill are employed 24 x 7. My spare time, what little there is, is not spent in introspection, but in joyous reverential awe or in the long lost art of rest.

Consider our workaday lives in modernity. How are our will and skill employed? This varies of course, by person, time and place, but certainly much less than when sailing, hunting and gathering, or sharing stories and rituals after a hard day’s meaningful work.

No wonder we no longer know what it really means to rest.

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Egypt Goes Islamist

NYT, December 1, 2011: CAIRO — Islamists claimed a decisive victory on Wednesday as early election results put them on track to win a dominant majority in Egypt’s first Parliament since the ouster of Hosni Mubarak…But a big surprise was the strong showing of ultraconservative Islamists, called Salafis, many of whom see most popular entertainment as sinful and reject women’s participation in voting or public life.

As I predicted many months ago in a series of posts beginning with The Coming of the New Caliphate, this outcome was a foregone conclusion and presages similar trends throughout the region.

Hang on folks, because the “fun” is just beginning.

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John Lennon: Getting ahead of the game

“It’s fear of the unknown. The unknown is what it is. And to be frightened of it is what sends everybody scurrying around chasing dreams, illusions, wars, peace, love, hate, all that—-it’s all illusion. Unknown is what it is. Accept that it’s unknown and it’s plain sailing. Everything is unknown—-then you’re ahead of the game. That’s what it is. Right?”

John Lennon

From previous blog post: “There’s No Place Like Nowhere

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Insurgency American Style

James Fallows at the Atlantic magazine is a bit outraged by the disproportionate aggression by police against non-violent UC Davis demonstrators. He suggests the we need to train our police to use more appropriate methods.

It seems to me that war is war and papering it over with a veneer of reasoned civility and kinder gentler methods of suppression does not make the real and consequential underlying conflict less desperate. The insurgents are insurging because they see and believe that the established order has ceased working FOR them and has started working AGAINST them and threatens their well being now and into the future.

Recent confrontations between angry protestors and police at UC Davis and elsewhere, do not reflect a need for better police training or more enlightened methods of suppression. These events constitute the use of force to put down an insurgency and irrespective of the lower intensity of the conflict here in the U.S., they are basically the same as insurgencies elsewhere in the world between an established order and people seeking change –China, Egypt, Syria, and Libya for example.

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Uniformed and weaponized police, insulated and enabled, do their job as agents of an established order, and given the benign behavior of the insurgents in the video above, the police at UC Davis, presumably were instructed to nip things in the bud.

When the established order finds itself threatened by those insistent on change, this is the way it goes everywhere, everywhen. When mind control fails–labeling insurgent individuals as pathological or insurgent groups as agents of subversive forces—police form the next line of defense against those demanding change. What is amazing is how quickly the veneer of reasoned civility drops away when things do not go strictly according to Plan A.

To the extent that OWS represents a non-ideological collective response to shared feelings about injustice and a real and present threat, the movement is encouraging to those on the side favoring change, but the oligarchy–the established order—has the upper hand, and even if all things were equal, in warfare the defense always has the advantage. The battle is profoundly asymmetric.

Non-violent protest is one method for conducting asymmetric warfare and martyrdom is part of that method. (Others methods include sabotage, and IEDs, for example.) The video documenting the pepper spraying of protestors at UC Davis is a victory for those seeking change, albeit quite small.

There’s an insurgency afoot here in the U.S. but the chances of it continuing to gain strength are small. Agents of the established order will do their best to marginalize the insurgents as criminals, psychopaths and subversives in the court of public opinion, but failing that, make no mistake about it, they will not hesitate to use force.

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What’s Wrong with the Scientific Method

I’ve been involved in an online discussion about Deming’s model for creating knowledge (aka continuous improvement) called PDSA. Most correspondents have argued that PDSA is just another version of the “scientific method”.

PDSA is not the scientific method and for good reason. The scientific method is a ball and chain view of the world that is killing us!

The paradigm of the scientific method (hereafter “SM”) supposes us pulling back of the curtain on the nature of a reality, asserting that we are or can be external observers. Even when we accept that our faculties of observation—our senses and senses extended by means of technology—are limited and imperfect, SM continues to insist that the world out there and our observation of it are separate.

As I surfed the web for some definitive rendering of SM, I came across many versions, but all boiled down to the following:

1. Make an OBSERVATION—>

2. Formulate a tentative explanation (hypothesis)—>

3. Design a plan for testing the hypothesis—>

4. Run the test under conditions of control and gather data—->

5. Use the data to decide if there is evidence in support of the hypothesis or reject the hypothesis.

We can add a 6th step not usually included…

8. If the hypothesis is supported, conditionally accept it and build upon it by using it to explain other observations (generalizing it) and exploiting it as technology**.

** By technology we mean not just machines and equipment but also organizational schemes “scientifically” designed or order to serve some purposes. (Our educational “system” is a good example.)

Plan-Do-Study-Act

Now let’s compare SM with PDSA, with particular attention to the first stage, not typically included in the PDSA diagram.

1. Determine what our AIMS are. What future are we trying to create? What’s RIGHT?

2. Devise a PLAN by which we believe that future can be pursued. Include in that plan a method for evaluating the efficacy of our plan by means of observation and measurement.

3. DO your plan as faithfully as possible even if, in process, we discover weaknesses in the plan. The aim is to test the efficacy of the plan and not to achieve the plan’s desired outcomes.

4. STUDY what the performance of the plan has created. Outcomes will never be identical with those predicted. Does the planned process show evidence of control? What is the nature of variation produced by the planned process and in its outcomes. Does the planned process serve the aims for which it was devised. Does it do useful and desirable work, the product of which varies within acceptable limits? What is the nature of unanticipated outcomes—useful, useless or dangerous?

5. Act to improve by revising one or more or all of the elements. Are the AIMS still RIGHT? Does the PLAN show promise in terms of aims? Is the plan DOable as formulated from the standpoint of practice? Are the methods used for STUDY valid, reliable, and doable and can they be improved?

6. If the plan works, predictably within acceptable limits , put it to use, keep track of what it is doing and improve it continuously.

The challenge that guides the process of PDSA is not to explain the true world but to DO RIGHT THINGS (our aims) as right as possible within the context of our worldly circumstances. So SM and PDSA are altogether different enterprises.

In SM we construct an edifice that sets the boundary conditions under which we can operate–the scientific laws of nature dispassionately observed and verified.

In PDSA we start with our passionate aims and intentions—the RIGHT things that need doing—and proceed to construct methods for pursuing our aims by systematically evaluating and improving our designs to enhance their efficacy in terms of our aims. It can be argued that SM is actually PDSA performed by practitioners cloaked the guise of objectivity. Their aims are there but hidden from others, and often from themselves in the form of unexamined assumptions about what is useful and what is right. Recommended reading: The Truth Wears Off.

In summary, SM sees us as observers outside the process while PDSA puts us squarely in the middle of the WHOLE thing. Which method is more useful? Is it the one that constrains us based on our imperfect and fallible ability to dispassionately decode the world’s true nature? Or is it the one that frees us to construct and improve useful workable methods that serve our long term aims?

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Fall Lines

I have started following NPR’s 13.7: Cosmos and Culture blog, primarily because Alva Noe is a contributor. Noe is the author of the book “Out of Our Heads” that impressed me greatly and I discussed in my entry “Dancing Feet” a few months back.

In his blog post yesterday, “On Being Overweight” Noe opines about the nature and exercise of freewill, threading together obesity and surfing, of all things. His essay prompted me to post a brief reply and I repeat it here.

To ski down mountains we are taught to shape our course down the slope to match its fall-line. This is line that gravity wants to take us when we let go. In doing this we harness ourselves to our circumstance in much the same manner as great birds soar upon thermals in order to make a living. It is the same for surfing down waves, navigating rivers or sailing boats across oceans. To take command of our imaginative powers of prediction we must try to shape our course forward along the fall lines of our circumstance–to shape our course along the wavefront of our experience. 1

In other words, to master the art of the act—the essence of freedom in purpose—we must become skillful at following the fall lines of our circumstance in order to harness the gravity of our situation. This is not a surefire recipe for realizing imagined ends but it is a method by which we can steer our way forward into an uncertain future.

  1. In Zen this is wangthang – To be without clinging
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